The reward for being your top individual contributor should not automatically be a job you never asked for. Yet that is exactly what most promotion tracks do, and it costs both the person and the company more than anyone wants to admit.
Performance signals what someone can do today
Potential signals what they could do in a different job, with different demands, and a different definition of success. Those are two different data sets. Treat them that way.
The filters that catch it in time
Ask candidates to run a real leadership challenge before the title changes. Coaching a peer. Owning a cross-functional decision. Sitting with ambiguity for a week. Watch what they do, not what they say they would do.
Give people an honorable way out
Some of your best performers will realize they don't want the role. Build a technical or expert track that pays and promotes without forcing them into management. You'll keep more of them, longer.

Erika Hebert